Our favourites to win Euro 2024

Ahead of a major football tournament, numerous tips emerge about which team will win it, and so is of course also the case when it comes to the Euro 2024 in Germany. We've already reviewed the candidates for the top scorer of the Euro, and here is our prediction of the most likely winners, as well as some challengers and dark horses.

The reigning champions from Euro 2020 (or 2021, as it was actually played) are Italy, who surprisingly went all the way and beat England "away" at Wembley (officially, Wembley was neutral ground as the final was to be played there regardless). Italy's victory was highly unexpected as they were not among the top favourites going into the tournament, but everything fell into place for them during that championship, something that potentially could happen for many teams.

Bukayo Saka - can he win the Euro 2024 with his England?

Most likely Euro gold medalists 2024

Let's start by listing the teams that rightfully belong to the top favourites to become champions. We won't rank them internally as it's very difficult to do so; all these teams look incredibly strong on paper, and it's most likely the champions will be found among this trio.

England

Odds to win the Euro according to bookmakers - between 4 and 5 times the money

England lost the final at Wembley in the last Euro against Italy, despite having the home advantage, and this clearly stings for the English who long for a championship win again (the first and only came in the 1966 World Cup). They were one of the top candidates to win already ahead of the last Euro, and they feel even sharper now. The feeling is stronger than ever that it's England's turn now, however, that is something that has been heard several times before.

What speaks in favor of England?

As usual, there is an overwhelming number of things that speak in favour of England succeeding this time. They have one of the world's absolute best forwards in Harry Kane, two of the world's best offensive midfielders in Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, and a whole array of other both offensive and defensive weapons. The fact that players like Jack Grealish and Harry Maguire didn't even make the squad speaks volumes about the team's strength this time.

What speaks against England?

The strongest argument against England is always their somewhat "loser mentality", if you want to be harsh. The pressure from fans and journalists is greater than for any other country, and this, combined with their difficulty in going all the way, weighs on them when it matters. If the play starts to falter, this gets into the players' heads. One should also remember that since the Premier League is by far the world's most monitored league, players who perform well there can sometimes be overrated, leading us to rank these players higher than those who perform well in other leagues.

France

Odds to win the Euro according to bookmakers - between 4.5 and 5 times the money

The French always have a strong team these days. They have an abundance of quality players, spiced up with Kylian Mbappé, who is probably the world's best forward at the moment. In the last four Euros or World Cups, they have reached the final three times, and even though it has only yielded one gold (the 2018 World Cup in Russia), it is naturally an impressive record.

What speaks in favor of France?

Clearly, Mbappé is France's strongest weapon. But they also have the team that played in the World Cup final against Argentina just 1.5 years ago almost intact. The only absences are the goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and defender Raphaël Varane, who have both retired from international play, but they have good replacements in the squad. In other words, there is plenty of championship experience in this team and a very nice mix of old experienced veterans like Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann and younger players.

What speaks against France?

It is hard to find negatives in the French team. They might lack a truly super creative midfielder like Michel Platini or Zinedine Zidane, but there are so many potent offensive pieces that they manage just fine anyway. One thing that could have an impact is the success they have had in recent championships. Everyone remembers how Spain came to Brazil in 2014 as one of the big favourites after winning three championships in a row (two Euros and one World Cup) with the core of those teams intact but fell flat and were eliminated in the group stage. However, France comes to Germany with a final loss instead of a title, so motivation should not be a problem.

Portugal

Odds to win the Euro according to bookmakers - between 7.5 and 8.5 times the money

Looking at raw talent, it's questionable if Portugal doesn't have the most interesting team in the Euro. They were also the only team to get through the Euro qualifiers without losing a single point. The team is led by Belgium's former coach Roberto Martínez, who began his tenure with Portugal with 11 straight wins. Besides the 10 wins in the qualifiers, they won a friendly against Sweden 5-2 before finally losing a friendly to Slovenia.

What speaks in favor of Portugal?

Portugal has world-class players in all areas and a very fine combination of younger talents (like Rafael Leão and Goncalo Ramos ), players in their prime (like Bruno Fernandes, Rúben Dias, and Bernardo Silva), and immense experience in Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe. They conceded only two goals and scored a whopping 36 in ten matches in the qualifiers, indicating that both defense and offense are working well. They have an easy group now, which should allow them to rotate a bit among the players to save their energy for the upcoming knockout stages.

What speaks against Portugal?

Looking at the players on paper, it's hard to find weaknesses in this Portuguese team. They lost their last friendly match against Croatia 1-2, and although one shouldn't read too much into a friendly before a championship, the fact is that Croatia is the only bigger team they have faced under Martínez. They had a relatively easy qualifying group, so the question remains whether they will have problems when facing better opposition? It's a question we will, of course, get an answer to in due course, but right here and now, Portugal feels like a very strong candidate to win the Euro.

Toni Kroos - can he win his last tournament with Germany?

First challengers

Even if the three teams we rank highest are the most likely winners, there are plenty of challengers, and we list the main ones here.

Germany

Germany has the advantage of being the host nation, which should not be underestimated, especially when it comes to a fundamentally strong football team like Germany. However, it has been a long time since Germany had any success in championships. In the last two World Cups, they were knocked out in the group stage, and in the last Euro, they were eliminated by England in the round of 16.

As they are directly qualified as the host nation, they didn't have to go through qualifying, so Germany needs to be judged by their friendlies. In November, they suffered two losses, first to Turkey and then to neighbouring country Austria, but after that, they have significantly improved. First, wins against France and the Netherlands, then a draw against Ukraine, and finally a win against Greece. It certainly looks like Germany is in good form, but it is always difficult to assess a team based solely on friendlies.

Looking at the German squad for this Euro, there are many familiar names, but at the same time, not many great world stars. However, there are solid players throughout the squad, and if they get the chemistry between veterans like Ilkay Gündogan and Toni Kroos (playing his last matches in his career here) and the youngsters like Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz to work, it could be an exciting summer for the Germans.

Spain

Spain is always hard to assess because they can play incredibly beautiful football in some matches and win big, only to then lose all their momentum when it comes down to the knockout matches. As usual, they have a squad filled to the brim with quality players, though without containing any true superstars. Comparing to the team that won the 2010 World Cup, which included players like Sergio Ramos, Carlos Puyol, Xavi, Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta, and David Villa, the current team is not quite filled with names of that calibre.

However, success in a Euro or World Cup creates big names, and they have many young players ready to take on that role. Barcelona's Pedri and Lamine Yamal, along with Nico Williams, are players who could explode in a major championship, and when they are flanked by experienced players like Álvaro Morata, Ferran Torres, and Rodri Hernandez, you can see the potential in this squad.

Can Spain go all the way? Undoubtedly. If Italy could go all the way in the last Euro, why couldn't this team do it? In the last Euro, they lost to Italy in the semi-finals on penalties, and in the World Cup in Qatar, they were knocked out by Morocco in the round of 16 on penalties. They need to have the margins on their side in such matches to go all the way this time.

Belgium

For several Euros and World Cups in a row, we've heard the mantra that it's the last chance for Belgium's golden generation. Considering how few players are left from that generation, one might say that the train has left.

However, this doesn't mean Belgium has a bad team. From the golden generation, they still have Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, perhaps the two most important players. New young and interesting players who have emerged in recent years include Loïs Openda, Jeremy Doku, and Johan Bakayoko. Adding well-known names like Leandro Trossard and Youri Tielemans to the mix, one realises that Belgium still has an interesting team.

We believe that lowered expectations this time might be the key to greater Belgian success. Unfortunately, De Bruyne is very injury-prone, and him staying healthy is probably a must for Belgium to go all the way.

Nicolo Barella - winner with Italy 2021

Watch out for these teams

Several teams could go all the way if the stars align for them this time, and we'll finish with these.

Italy

It would feel like a disservice not to include the reigning champions as at least a contender to win again, so we a bit reluctantly include them in this section.

The biggest star in the Italian team is goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, and while a good goalkeeper is very important, he can't win matches for the team on his own. We all recognize names like Jorginho, Nicolò Barella, and Federico Chiesa, but these are not names that strike fear into opponents.

In the last Euro, the Italians were underestimated as they were not considered to have a strong enough profile to go far, but how wrong everyone was. Many players in the team peaked at the right moment, and several even played above their ability. Could this happen again? It certainly could, but first, they need to get past a group that includes both Spain and Croatia.

Croatia

If there were a list of national teams' performances per capita over the past ten years, Croatia would undoubtedly top it. Despite having a population of under four million, they have a World Cup silver from 2018 and a World Cup bronze from 2022. In the last Euro, they were knocked out in the round of 16 by Spain.

But it does feel like Croatia has fewer heavyweight names and a somewhat aging team this time. Players like Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, and Domagoj Vida are still around, and it feels like they have been in the national team since football was invented. Also Mateo Kovacic, Andrej Kramaric, and Marcelo Brozovic are all well-known names in championship contexts.

So, is the overwhelming experience in this team an advantage or a disadvantage? It's very hard to predict, but Croatia has six straight wins ahead of the championship and did beat Portugal 2-1 in their last friendly match, so there's no doubt they enter the tournament in full form and with plenty of confidence.

Netherlands

It is incredibly difficult to assess the Dutch. At times, they displayed brilliant play in the World Cup in Qatar but were eliminated on penalties by the upcoming champions Argentina in the quarterfinals. They have taken two convincing wins in friendly matches ahead of the Euro against Canada and Iceland, both matches ending in 4-0 to their advantage.

Defensively, they have plenty of strong names, and offensively, it's Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay who are expected to deliver. Unfortunately for the Dutch, Barcelona's midfielder Frenkie de Jong will miss the Euro due to injury, but they have several skilled midfielders who can replace him, even if they are less well-known to the public, outside of the Netherlands at least. They have a tough but manageable group with France, Austria, and Poland, and if they advance, they have the capacity to beat any team in the knockout matches.

Ukraine

We end with a team that would be a huge surprise, akin to Greece in 2004, if they were to win - Ukraine. But it's not just because it would feel like some sort of divine justice for this war-torn country, who was attacked by Russia in February 2022 and now having been at war for two and a half years, to win. They actually have a bunch of highly interesting players.

Girona had massive success in La Liga this season, surprisingly finishing third, and a big reason for this achievement was two Ukrainians. Firstly, there's Artem Dovbyk, who won the La Liga top scorer title with his 24 goals, and then there's winger Viktor Tsyhankov, who was also crucial for the team's success. Additionally, Chelsea's Mykhailo Mudryk, Real Madrid's goalkeeper Andriy Lunin, and Arsenal's Oleksandr Zinchenko are all part of this team, meaning there's plenty of quality.

So, is Ukraine a realistic candidate to win the Euro? It would certainly be a massive surprise, but they still have good chances to advance from the group with Belgium, Romania, and Slovakia, and after that, anything can happen. If you're looking for a fun bet on who to become champions, you can get up to 100 times the money on Ukraine as champions.